• The Anti-Spam fork BIP-110 stalls after two blocks

• Robinhood brings crypto trading to main UK app through Bitstamp

• Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believes trillions in institutional money will flow to Bitcoin

• Coldcard hack latest: 1,816BTC drained

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: The free and simple strategy that beats Bitcoin

Latest Price Action

Bitcoin has had a more constructive week, with price climbing back above the 200 week moving average after briefly losing that level at the start of August. BTC is up +4.37% over the past seven days and is currently trading around $65,200.

Figure 1: BTC past week price action.

Zooming out slightly, Bitcoin is also up +1.66% over the past month. The broader picture remains one of choppy late-stage bear market price action, but importantly BTC has continued to defend the key support region around the 200WMA.

Figure 2: BTC past month price action.

Philip Swift’s Q3 Market Map continues to frame this area well. Bitcoin remains in what he describes as the Great DCA area, with price once again back above the 200WMA. That is encouraging and should help some confidence return to the market.

Figure 3: Bitcoin Q3 Market Map, showing BTC back above the 200WMA and still trading in the Great DCA area.

The next major level to watch remains the 200 day moving average, now around $70,000. A convincing reclaim of that level would be a more meaningful signal that market confidence is starting to return and that Bitcoin may finally be moving out of this prolonged bear market phase.

ETF Flows Turn Positive Again

One of the more encouraging developments this week has been the return of meaningful inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

After months of heavy selling, the ETFs recorded around $853 million of net inflows over the past week, their strongest weekly total since April.

Figure 4: Bitcoin ETF daily flows showing the recent return of positive inflows.

Some of that demand may be linked to the fallout from the Coldcard security breach, which has reportedly seen more than 1,800 BTC drained from affected wallets. Events like this are an uncomfortable reminder of the operational risks involved in self-custody and may encourage some investors to prefer regulated ETF exposure instead.

But we suspect the bigger driver is simply price.

Bitcoin continues to hold relatively stable around the 200WMA, despite everything the market has thrown at it. Whether the absolute cycle low is already behind us or not, investors may increasingly be recognising that we are deep into the bear market and likely getting closer to the beginning of the next bull cycle.

What is particularly interesting is BlackRock’s IBIT.

IBIT experienced an aggressive cluster of outflows around the recent lows, exactly when BTC was testing and briefly falling below the 200WMA. Over the past couple of weeks that pattern has reversed sharply, with IBIT now attracting substantial inflows again.

Figure 5: BlackRock IBIT flows showing the shift from heavy capitulation outflows to renewed inflows.

That change is now starting to show up in the bigger picture too.

For the first time since the spot ETFs launched, cumulative flows had been trending meaningfully lower for several months. That trend has now started to turn upwards again.

Figure 6: Bitcoin ETF cumulative flows beginning to turn higher after months of decline.

One positive week does not confirm a new trend.

But after months of capitulation from traditional investors, this is exactly the kind of behaviour change we have been waiting to see.

Is this the beginning of sustained ETF demand returning? That is one of the key signals we’ll be watching over the coming weeks.

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

• ColdCard hack continues to unravel with +1300BTC stolen

• Strategy holds STRC at 12%

• Mining difficulty shrinks +14% from high

• Tether posts $1.5B profit in Q2

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: The 3rd worst Bitcoin capitulation ever

Latest Price Action

Bitcoin has come under pressure this week, with price tumbling lower and ending the seven-day period down -4.37%. While there is rarely a single reason for short-term market moves, the recent Coldcard hack fears appear to have added to the unease, shaking confidence and contributing to the latest bout of weakness.

Figure 1: BTC past week price action.

When we zoom out a little further, the picture is still one of chop rather than trend. Over the past month, BTC is now broadly flat, down just -0.24%, which gives a good sense of the frustrating late-stage bear market environment we are in. Price has moved around plenty, but without delivering a decisive move in either direction, testing the patience of holders along the way.

Figure 2: BTC past month price action.

Zooming out further still, Philip Swift’s latest Q3 Market Map continues to show Bitcoin trading in the Great DCA area. The key difference versus last week is that BTC has now slipped back below the 200 week moving average, which is a mild negative from a technical perspective and may dent some of the optimism that had started to creep back into the market.

Figure 3: Bitcoin Q3 Market Map, showing BTC now below the 200WMA but still in the DCA zone.

That said, the bigger picture remains the same for now. BTC is still trading in what we view as a strong long-term accumulation area. A move back above the 200WMA would help restore some confidence, while a reclaim of the 200DMA would be the more meaningful signal that sentiment is starting to shift more decisively. However, it is now important to see what the exact fallout from the ColdCard hack will be over the coming days.

Coldcard Security Alert: What You Need to Know

For our main story this week, we are making a small change from our usual format given the seriousness of the Coldcard security issue and what it could mean for anyone who has used one of these devices.

Below is a clear overview of what happened, who may be affected, and what Coldcard users should now consider.

Please take this seriously, but do not panic.

A flaw was discovered in the seed-generation process used by certain Coldcard firmware versions. The problem appears to date back to a major firmware release in March 2021 and reduced the randomness used when generating some wallet recovery phrases. Rather than producing seeds with the expected level of cryptographic randomness, affected devices could create seeds from a much smaller range of possibilities, potentially allowing an attacker to calculate the private keys.

The incident initially came to light after roughly 594 BTC was reportedly drained from around 500 wallets in less than 30 minutes. Galaxy Research has since tracked several waves of theft involving approximately 1,367 BTC across more than 4,500 addresses, worth around $88.6 million at the time of reporting. As this remains an active situation, those figures may continue to change.

Reports indicate that potentially affected devices span several Coldcard generations, including the Mk3, Mk4, Q and newer Mk5, with some reporting also referencing the older Mk2. These models were introduced over a number of years, including the Mk3 in 2019, Mk4 in 2022, Q in 2023 and Mk5 in 2026.

However, the key issue is not simply which Coldcard model someone owns. The important question is when and how the wallet’s original seed was generated, and which firmware was running at that time.

Seeds later imported into another hardware wallet may still carry the original weakness. Simply changing devices does not necessarily solve the problem if the same recovery phrase continues to be used.

Risk may also differ depending on how the wallet was originally configured. The available guidance suggests that users who added at least 50 genuinely random, private dice rolls during seed generation may have additional protection. A strong BIP39 passphrase or a properly constructed multi-signature setup may also reduce exposure, although users should not assume that these automatically make every setup safe.

What should Coldcard users consider?

Anyone who has used a Coldcard should review the latest official security advisory on Coldcard’s website to understand whether their particular model, firmware and seed-generation process may be affected.

It is also worth being especially cautious of phishing attempts or unsolicited messages offering help. Recovery phrases should never be entered into websites, online checking tools, support forms or messages.

Those who believe their wallet could be exposed may wish to consider moving their bitcoin to a newly created secure wallet using a completely fresh seed. Given the risks involved in moving funds, anyone who is uncertain should take their time and consider seeking help from a trusted Bitcoin security professional.

The key point is to remain calm, verify information through official sources and avoid rushing into a mistake while under pressure.

Stay safe.

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

If you’re in a hurry:

• Hashrate is signaling one of the longest miner capitulation events ever.

• Miner Difficulty is down 19.9% from its peak, the third deepest decline since dedicated mining hardware arrived.

• Miner stocks have massively outperformed BTC over the past year despite offloading thousands of bitcoin.

• Block reward revenue in BTC terms just hit its lowest daily figure ever recorded.

• Average daily fee revenue over the past 28 days came in below the subsidy from a single block.

Capitulation Is Real

Only a handful of hashrate drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history have run longer than this one. Miner Difficulty has followed it down, which is exactly what the protocol is built to do: every 2,016 blocks, or roughly a fortnight, the network resets the target so blocks keep landing near ten minutes apart. Fewer machines hashing means an easier target. It now sits 19.9% below the peak, and only two drawdowns since ASICs replaced GPUs have gone deeper than that.

Figure 1: Miner Difficulty sits 19.9% below its peak.

View Live Chart

The only two comparable stretches ran for a similar time. The deeper of them came out of China’s mining ban, which was about as legible as these events get. The state switched the machines off, hashrate collapsed, and anyone watching could work out what came next: the hardware would find cheaper power somewhere else and plug back in.

Figure 2: The Bitcoin Hashrate has been declining for 287 days.

View Live Chart

Why The Stocks Are Up

BTC is down around 46% over the past year. Most of the largest Listed Miners are up massively over the same stretch, the best of them has gained more than 430%. That is not how this pairing normally behaves. Miner equities have historically traded as leveraged Bitcoin, falling harder in the drawdowns and running harder in the rallies, so a divergence this wide is rare.

Figure 3: Listed Miners vs BTC performance over the past year.

View Live Chart

AI is doing the work. For years Bitcoin and the largest AI ETF moved together, with the correlation at times reaching 0.8 or 0.9. That has since inverted: AI has rallied while Bitcoin sold off.

The Block Subsidy

Miners recently recorded their lowest-ever day of BTC-denominated revenue from Block Rewards. Some of that is the hashrate decline, with blocks arriving slower than ten minutes apart until difficulty catches up, but most of it is simply the protocol working as designed. The subsidy halves every four years, and it will keep halving until there is nothing left to issue.

Figure 4: Miner Revenue (Block Rewards) in BTC terms has fallen to a new all-time low.

View Live Chart

The counterargument, made every cycle since the first halving, is that price does the compensating. Fewer coins per block, each one worth more, dollar revenue holds. It has worked so far. The Puell Multiple, which compares current miner earnings against their trailing yearly average, sits near 0.75, so miners are taking in about three-quarters of what they averaged over the past year. Call it $30 million a day against a longer run average closer to $40 million.

Fill The Gap

Fees are the other half of the answer, and always have been. The subsidy eventually reaches zero, at which point fees have to pay for the hashrate on their own or the security budget shrinks with them.

Figure 5: Miner Fees % as a share of total miner revenue.

View Live Chart

The numbers are nowhere near that yet. Miners are earning roughly $30 million a day, of which fees contribute something around $200,000. Put differently, the average fee revenue over the past 28 days did not cover the subsidy from one block, and there are 144 blocks a day. Whatever the fee market eventually becomes, it currently pays for about ten minutes of the network.

What It All Means

Bitcoin is nowhere near a security risk today, and none of this is a call on price. But this capitulation is not shaped like the previous ones. Miners have simply found something more profitable to do with their hardware, and they have found it at the same time the price is down, the subsidy is shrinking, and fees are going nowhere.

Nobody needs another bearish narrative in a bear market, and I am aware that is roughly what this reads as! The counterweight is that bear markets are when this kind of question actually gets worked on. Long-term miner incentives will either be solved deliberately or left to higher prices to paper over.

Watch our most recent YouTube video here: The 3rd WORST Bitcoin Capitulation EVER Is Only Just Beginning...

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

• Poolin, Bitcoin’s one-time biggest mining pool files for bankruptcy

• Saylor teases another BTC buy after 4 weeks without

• America’s largest pool puts BIP-110 to vote

• Jack Mallers steps down as CEO of Bitcoin treasury Twenty One Capital

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: The data PROVES this simple strategy beats blind DCA by 471%

Latest Price Action

Bitcoin has bounced around this week without showing a clear short-term direction. Price has moved both ways, but ultimately BTC is ending the week close to where it started, with only a small gain over the past seven days.

Figure 1: BTC past week price action.

However, when we zoom out beyond the short-term noise, the picture looks more constructive. Over the past month, Bitcoin has been trending higher, with price up around +8.25%. That is a welcome shift after the heavy weakness we saw earlier in the year.

Figure 2: BTC past month price action.

Zooming out further, Philip Swift’s latest analysis continues to show Bitcoin trading in what he describes as the Great DCA area. BTC remains above the 200 week moving average, which has historically been one of the most important long-term support levels in Bitcoin.

Figure 3: Bitcoin Q3 Market Map, showing BTC holding above the 200WMA in the DCA zone.

This does not yet mean market confidence has fully returned. Price still needs to reclaim higher levels, most importantly the 200 day moving average, before stronger bullish momentum can build. But holding above the 200WMA is an encouraging sign and is beginning to bring some mild optimism back to those market participants who have not lost interest in Bitcoin.

ETF and Treasury Capitulation Signs

There are growing signs that the bear market may be close to its lows and that a new bull market could be approaching. Alongside several on-chain indicators, we are also seeing signs of stress in the behaviour of market participants who are under pressure from lower BTC prices.

One area to watch is the ETF market. Bitcoin ETFs have seen repeated outflows over recent months, with the recent cluster of redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT particularly notable. These outflows accelerated as price briefly dipped below the 200WMA, suggesting that some large holders may have capitulated and exited Bitcoin near historically important bear market levels.

Figure 8: BlackRock IBIT daily flows, showing a recent cluster of outflows as BTC traded around the 200WMA.

We are also seeing stress across the Bitcoin treasury sector. Strategy paused its usual aggressive accumulation in recent weeks, instead building a large cash reserve after selling a small portion of BTC earlier this month. Twenty One Capital has also seen pressure, with Jack Mallers stepping down as CEO and the stock trading near all-time lows. Meanwhile, Satsuma Technology shareholders voted to sell the company’s remaining BTC, wind down the business, and return capital to shareholders.

Figure 9: HODLboard showing the leading public Bitcoin treasury companies.

This type of distress is painful in real time, but it is also typical of late-stage bear markets. When weaker holders, ETF investors, and overextended treasury companies begin throwing in the towel, long-term Bitcoin investors often get the opportunity to accumulate near cycle lows.

In our view, this continues to look like an area of maximum opportunity for patient investors with a long-term mindset.

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

At a glance:

• Relying on one indicator to go all in or all out is unreliable.

• The strategy uses the MVRV quantile bands, with no buying in the top 30% of valuations, standard DCA below that, and linearly more aggressive buying in the bottom 15%.

• Adding a sell mode, scaling out gradually in the top 15% of valuations, produced a 5.71x outperformance versus blind DCA since 2014.

• Picking any random start date in Bitcoin’s history, the approach beat blind dollar cost averaging 88% of the time.

• The same logic extends to other metrics such as the Mayer Multiple and production cost.

There Is No Holy Grail Indicator

Metrics like the Bitcoin Cycle Master have worked well historically, with clearly defined undervalued and overvalued zones that lined up with cycle turning points. However, in the last cycle, price simply never reached the upper band. Anyone waiting for that perfect sell signal never got it. The same risk applies on the way down; there is no guarantee this bear market reaches the lower band either.

Figure 1: The Bitcoin Cycle Master has worked well historically, but the last cycle never reached the outer bands.

View Live Chart

That’s the core problem with all-in, all-out thinking built around a single line. It works until the market doesn’t cooperate. The better approach is one that performs well whether or not the extremes are ever reached.

The Quantile Framework

The foundation is the MVRV quantile model we built recently, which takes the ratio between price and the Realized Price and accounts for the consistent contraction in its peaks and troughs across Bitcoin’s history, splitting the result into twenty bands of five percent each. The bands adapt as the market matures instead of sitting at fixed levels that can go stale, and at any moment they show where Bitcoin sits relative to where the model expects it to be.

Figure 2: Unlike fixed valuation levels, the MVRV quantile bands adapt as the market matures.

The Rules

The logic is simple. When Bitcoin sits in the top 30% of the valuation bands, you don’t buy at all. Roughly a third of all Bitcoin’s price action happens up there, and that’s clearly not where you want to be deploying capital. Your regular deposits pile up in a cash reserve instead. Below that threshold, you dollar cost average as normal, every day or every week, no stress.

Figure 3: The allocation switches between buying and holding cash as valuation bands shift.

The aggression kicks in at the bottom 15%. That’s where you start deploying the reserve, and with every band lower, the buy size scales up. At the rarest, deepest levels of undervaluation, you’re buying as aggressively as the model ever gets. The sell side mirrors it: in the top 15% of valuations, you can consider scaling out a couple of percent a day, growing the closer price gets to the top. And if you never want to fully exit, you can set a holding floor so the model always keeps, say, at least 50% of the portfolio in bitcoin.

The Results

Buy-side discipline alone, simply refusing to buy in the top 30% and leaning in at the bottom, beat blind DCA by a modest margin. Worth having, but not transformative. Adding the sell mode changed everything. From 2015 onward, the full strategy outperformed blind dollar cost averaging by well over 450%, and measured from 2014, the outperformance sits at 5.71x.

Figure 4: The backtest data shows this model tracking above blind dollar cost averaging.

Robustness was the priority because backtests are easy to overfit. Pick any random day in Bitcoin’s history as a start date, and this approach beat blind DCA 88% of the time. Just as important as the returns, the drawdowns are far smaller, because you’re holding real cash through the periods when Bitcoin bleeds most. Everyone thinks they can stomach a 50%+ drawdown until they’re actually living inside one. Higher returns with a fraction of the pain is the real win here.

Extending The Framework

The same quantile methodology applies to practically any mean-reverting metric. Running it on the Mayer Multiple, the ratio between price and the one-year moving average on a rolling four-year basis, produces the same pattern of aggressive accumulation at the lows and scaling out toward the peaks, purely from one moving average. Layering in a fundamental anchor such as the electrical production cost, buying most aggressively as price approaches what it actually costs to mine a bitcoin, only strengthens the confluence.

Figure 5: The same model can run on other metrics and still generate profitable trading signals.

To Sum It Up

The chances of going all in at the exact bottom and all out at the exact top are close to zero, and the stress of attempting it is enormous. What the data shows is that you don’t need to. A simple, rules-based framework, buying nothing when the market is expensive, steadily when it’s fair, and aggressively when it’s historically cheap, beats blind dollar cost averaging almost all of the time, with smaller drawdowns and far less second-guessing along the way.

Watch our most recent YouTube video here: The Data PROVES This Strategic Bitcoin DCA Method (471% Better)

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

For the next 24 hours only, our New Bull Market Sale is live on Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Get 40% off your subscription, our deepest discount of the year, and lock in full access before the offer ends.

Get 40% off here: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/

What’s Happening

• State unanimously opposes any pardon for Sam Bankman Fried

• Saylor urges Bitcoin to reject BIP-110

• Strategy CEO says they feel ‘very secure’ until BTC reaches $8-10k

• Bitcoin Japan, raises $60M to finally own some Bitcoin

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: The catalyst that kickstarts a Bitcoin bull market

Latest Price Action

Bitcoin has had a solid week, once again managing to hold above the 200 week moving average. That is a positive sign for the bulls, even if price has not yet rallied aggressively to the upside. BTC is up +1.28% over the past seven days.

Figure 1: BTC past week price action.

If Bitcoin can continue to hold this level, July is on track to be one of its strongest months of the year. That matters because the majority of months in 2026 have so far been deep in the red.

Figure 2: Monthly Returns Heatmap.

BTC is currently up around +10% for July, a welcome change after what has been a challenging year for Bitcoin investors.

Bear Market Status

Bitcoin has had a difficult 12 months, with price still down roughly -44% from this time last year.

Figure 3: BTC past year price performance.

That level of drawdown has pushed many investors away from the market. Those who remain have been extremely cautious, as shown by the Fear & Greed Index, which is currently in Fear with a score of 28.

Figure 4: Fear & Greed Index.

However, our view at Bitcoin Magazine Pro is that this is precisely the type of environment where maximum long-term opportunity begins to appear. Price continues to trade in a region comparable with previous bear market lows. Historically, holding Bitcoin from these areas into future cycles has produced outsized returns.

The Bitcoin Investor Tool highlights this clearly using the 2 year moving average, shown by the green line on the chart.

Figure 5: Bitcoin Investor Tool.

Accumulating around these broad valuation zones has been a highly effective strategy for Bitcoin investors over the years. The tool is not designed to identify the exact cycle low. Instead, it highlights the wider areas where Bitcoin has historically offered strong long-term value. Each time BTC has traded in these zones, price has later gone on to reach significantly higher levels.

The MVRV Z-Score is telling a similar story. It continues to trend in a zone of opportunity, showing that Bitcoin is trading close to the average cost basis of all coins. That suggests BTC remains undervalued relative to historical norms. Importantly, this indicator does not need to fall fully into the green zone for the setup to be attractive. Historically, anywhere around these levels has offered a strong entry point for long-term investors.

Figure 6: MVRV Z-Score.

In summary, multiple metrics continue to suggest that this broad area is a fantastic dollar cost averaging zone for Bitcoin. That view is also reflected in our Q3 Market Map, which shows BTC trading near the 200WMA, with realized price below as the deeper value zone and the 200DMA above as the key level for market confidence to return.

Figure 7: Bitcoin 2026 Q3 Market Map.

In our view, this remains exactly the kind of uncomfortable, low-sentiment environment where patient long-term Bitcoin investors have historically found some of the strongest opportunities.

Final reminder: New Bull Market Sale ends soon

Our biggest discount of the year is only available for the next 24 hours. Get 40% off Bitcoin Magazine Pro now and lock in access before the next wave of platform updates goes live.

Get 40% off here: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This week, I’m walking through why the official numbers were likely to come in soft, what the knock-on chain from inflation to liquidity to Bitcoin actually looks like, and the two risks that could still derail the recovery.

If you’re in a hurry:

• Bitcoin rebounded sharply after CPI came in below expectations, easing fears of further monetary tightening.

• The implied probability of rates holding steady jumped from under 60% to the mid-80s almost instantly, while rate hike odds collapsed from over 35% to single digits.

• Truflation, an alternative real-time inflation measure that leads official prints by roughly 45 days, has inflation running closer to 2%.

• Global M2 on a year-on-year basis may have set a low.

• The two key risks are an oil-driven inflation resurgence from Middle East escalation and the US Dollar Index sitting at a major turning point.

The Reaction

When CPI runs hot, the Federal Reserve leans toward higher rates to discourage spending, liquidity tightens, and risk assets struggle. When inflation cools, that entire chain reverses. Across the past decade, periods of rapidly rising CPI have consistently coincided with Bitcoin weakness, and declining inflation with more favorable conditions. That’s why a single below-expectations print moved markets as much as it did. The reaction wasn’t really about one month of data, but it was about what that data implies for the path of rates and liquidity from here.

Figure 1: The CPI landed below expectations, and BTC rebounded alongside it.

View Live Chart

Before the print, the implied probability of the Fed holding rates steady had drifted down to under 60%, with the odds of a further 25 basis point hike climbing above 35%. Within moments of the release, the hold probability jumped to the mid-80s, and hike odds collapsed to single digits.

Figure 2: The Fed Funds Target Range has settled near 4%.

View Live Chart

Liquidity Chain

Declining CPI and Global M2 are strongly inversely correlated. As inflation falls, central banks loosen, and the global supply of money and cash equivalents expands. And Global M2, particularly on a year-on-year basis with a roughly 10-week offset, has been one of the most consistent leading indicators for Bitcoin’s price across its entire history.

Figure 3: Global M2 is trending higher.

View Live Chart

Right now, Global M2 year-on-year sits close to where it bottomed a few months ago and is showing early signs of renewed momentum. What’s especially worth noting is the sequencing from the last cycle, where Bitcoin bottomed on November 21st, 2022, and Global M2 didn’t turn higher for another 55 days or so. Bitcoin was already up 30 to 40% before the liquidity data confirmed anything.

Oil

The most credible threat to the cooling inflation story is energy. Oil recently spiked following renewed escalation in the Middle East, and because energy weighs so heavily in the official inflation basket, a sustained move higher in crude would feed directly back into hotter prints and undo the repricing we’ve just seen. Prediction market odds of shipping traffic through the region normalizing this month have collapsed from above 60% to essentially nothing, which tells you how quickly the situation has deteriorated.

Figure 4: USOIL has bounced off recent lows, back near $80.

This is also where the downside scenario lives. If escalation accelerates, it could play the role the FTX collapse played in 2022, with one final external shock flushing price lower even after the organic capitulation is complete. In that scenario, the confluence zone around $50,000, where the Realized Price, the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, and the CVDD are converging, becomes the target.

The Dollar

The US Dollar Index was recently rejected from a major resistance zone and is currently battling its 100-week moving average. The inverse correlation between the dollar and Bitcoin is one of the strongest macro relationships in this market, and the dollar’s year-on-year trend is in turn tightly linked to Global M2 itself.

Figure 5: The DXY is battling resistance and stands at a crossroads.

View Live Chart

A decisive break higher in the dollar would mean more pain for risk-on assets across the board. A continuation of the multi-year downtrend from here, beneath that 100-week average, would provide one of the most supportive macro backdrops Bitcoin has had in a long time.

Pulling It Together

Leading inflation data suggests the official numbers have further to fall, rate expectations have already swung decisively away from further tightening, global liquidity looks to be turning, and Bitcoin’s own low is aging in a way that closely mirrors how it led the macro turn last cycle.

An oil-driven inflation resurgence or a dollar breakout would delay everything, and a severe escalation could yet deliver a final flush toward the low $50,000s. But fundamentals, technicals, timing, and macro are all starting to lean the same way, and that’s not something this market has been able to say for most of the past year.

Watch our most recent YouTube video here: The Catalyst That Kickstarts The Bitcoin Bull Market

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

• Empery Digital sells half its BTC for $87M

• Bitcoin whale moves $188M in BTC after 7yr dormancy

• Metaplanet explores Bitcoin backed digital credit in Japan

• DOJ threat to Trump over Ross Ulbricht comms

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: Everyone expects this line to break

Latest Price Action

Bitcoin has been broadly flat over the past week, with price currently sitting close to where it began.

Figure 1: BTC past week price action.

The same is true over the past month, with BTC down just -1.28%. After weeks of sharp moves lower, price is now grinding sideways around one of the most important long-term support levels in Bitcoin’s history.

Figure 2: BTC past month price action.

This type of price action is not unusual in the later stages of a bear market. Performance becomes poor, volatility fades, and investors lose interest. Apathy rises precisely at the point where long-term risk reward can become most attractive.

That is why we believe this broad area remains a strong dollar cost averaging zone for long-term investors. As highlighted by Bitcoin Magazine Pro founder Philip Swift, BTC is currently trading around the 200 week moving average, a level that has historically marked excellent accumulation opportunities across Bitcoin’s previous cycles.

BTC is currently sitting right on that 200WMA. In our view, that is too important to ignore.

Figure 3: Q3 Bitcoin Market Map, showing BTC trading in the great DCA area around the 200WMA.

Given we believe this broad region could mark the early stages of Bitcoin’s next major cycle, we are currently running a limited-time New Bull Market Sale. You can get 40% OFF your Bitcoin Magazine Pro subscription and lock in access before we roll out a major wave of new features in the coming weeks.

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/subscribe/

Miners Are in Pain: A Bottoming Signal?

While AI continues to attract capital and attention, Bitcoin miners are facing one of the most challenging periods of this cycle. In recent months, some miners have shifted power capacity toward AI and high-performance computing, and part of the reason is simple: mining BTC has become far tougher.

Miner revenue has been under structural pressure for years, with each halving reducing block subsidy income. At the same time, transaction fees remain a relatively small share of total revenue, as many investors continue to buy and hold rather than frequently move funds on-chain.

Figure 4: Bitcoin miner revenue over time.

Miner difficulty has also started trending lower in recent months, which suggests hash rate has been leaving the network as the bear market has taken hold.

Figure 5: Bitcoin mining difficulty.

This is partly because price weakness has pushed BTC below estimated network-wide production cost, roughly $84,000 to $87,000. For higher-cost miners, that can make some rigs unprofitable to run. When hash rate leaves the network, Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment responds mechanically, lowering difficulty so that block times remain close to 10 minutes.

The bigger picture is that miners are clearly feeling the squeeze, at a level comparable with prior bear market lows. This is also visible in the Puell Multiple, which compares the daily value of newly mined BTC with its 365-day moving average. Low readings show miner revenue stress and have often appeared near major market bottoms.

Figure 6: Puell Multiple showing miner revenue stress near historically important lows.

The key question now is whether this extreme pressure on miners is signalling that Bitcoin is close to a bottom, or that the bottom has already been made.

Whether this phase is late bear or early new bull market, current pricing on Bitcoin Magazine Pro may not last long. Our New Bull Market Sale is live now, with 40% OFF for a limited time.

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/subscribe/

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

If you’re in a hurry:

• The Realized Price currently sits around $53,000.

• The MVRV ratio’s peaks and troughs have been contracting at a consistent rate across Bitcoin’s entire history, forming a clear wedge.

• A statistical line of best fit through the MVRV troughs has just crossed above 1.00, implying Bitcoin may not dip beneath its realized price this cycle.

• Only 0.29% of all days in Bitcoin’s history have closed beneath this trendline.

• The Long-Term Holder Realized Price is on track to cross $50,000 within weeks, adding a second layer of support.

Waiting

The Realized Price is arguably the single most-watched level in on-chain analysis. When Bitcoin’s market price dips beneath it, the average holder is at a loss; historically, that condition has marked genuine capitulation and some of the best accumulation windows the asset has ever offered.

Figure 1: Bitcoin’s cost basis, the Realized Price, currently sits around $53,000.

View Live Chart

That reliability is exactly why so many people have anchored their entire accumulation plan to it this cycle. The problem is that anchoring to a level assumes the level behaves the way it always has.

Contraction

Look at the raw MVRV ratio, the simple relationship between price and realized price, across Bitcoin’s full history, and a clear pattern emerges. The peaks are getting lower. The troughs are getting higher. Both sides are contracting toward the middle in a consistent wedge, cycle after cycle.

Figure 2: Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio forms a wedge, with lower highs and higher lows each cycle.

View Live Chart

Bitcoin has gone from a few million dollars in total value to multiple trillions. As the asset matures, as more supply is accumulated at progressively higher prices, and as volatility compresses, the extremes on both sides naturally shrink. The deviation above the average cost basis at each peak diminishes, and so does the depth of each dip beneath it.

The Trend

Rather than eyeballing lines on a chart, you can fit this mathematically. Taking the full history of MVRV data on a logarithmic scale and running a statistical line of best fit through the troughs produces a trendline that has been remarkably accurate, with the 2011 lows and the most recent cycle bottoms landing almost exactly on it, and the 2015 and 2018 lows sitting within roughly 10% of it.

This trendline has just crossed above 1.00. A reading of 1.00 is par, the point where price equals the realized price. The trendline sitting above that level implies that, on its current trajectory, Bitcoin’s next major low arrives before price ever reaches the realized price at all.

Figure 3: Bitcoin’s MVRV trough trendline has recently crossed above par.

The realized price itself is currently trending down, so a dip into the mid/low $50,000s remains possible, and Bitcoin has spent time beneath this trendline before, in 2011 and briefly in 2022. But across the asset’s entire history, that amounts to just 17 days, or 0.29% of all trading days. Put differently, on 99.7% of all days in Bitcoin’s existence, price has held above this line. Waiting for $40,000 or $30,000 bitcoin means betting against essentially the whole of that record.

Long-Term?

The natural pushback is that Bitcoin has historically also dipped beneath the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, the cost basis of the market’s most experienced participants. That level is on track to cross $50,000 within the next week or two, and if further downside does materialize, the standard realized price declining toward it while the long-term holder level rises to meet it would create a meaningful zone of confluence in the low $50,000s.

Figure 4: Long-Term Holder MVRV lacks clean trendlines, but its cost basis keeps climbing.

View Live Chart

The Long-Term Holder MVRV doesn’t produce trendlines as clean as the standard version; connecting its peaks gives little predictive power. But the underlying logic still applies, and arguably applies more strongly. That metric includes coins from over a decade ago, millions of which are lost or will simply never move again, accumulated at a few dollars each. As that dormant base grows, it makes structural sense that each dip beneath these cost basis levels becomes shallower with every cycle.

Takeaways

Could Bitcoin dip beneath the realized price this cycle? Yes, it has happened before, and a few days in the mid or low $50,000s is entirely within the range of outcomes. But the statistical trend through every trough in Bitcoin’s history says each undershoot gets shallower, and the trendline itself now says the low may arrive above that point entirely.

Watch our most recent YouTube video here: EVERYONE Expects Bitcoin To Break This Line, It’s Held 99% Of The Time

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

• JP Morgan says Saylor’s Strategy is adding more risk to Bitcoin

• Dave Portnoy plans to hold Bitcoin down to zero

• Bitwise says STRC selling off indicates BTC near cycle bottom

• Tim Draper denies he moved Bitcoin to exchange

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: Bitcoin bottom signal less than 2 weeks away

Latest Price Action

It has been a positive week for BTC, which feels like a long time coming after several weeks of weak price action. Bitcoin is up 4.73% over the past seven days, with price recovering from recent lows and attempting to build momentum around the 200 week moving average.

Figure 1: BTC past week price action.

Last week, Philip Swift, founder of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, posted on X explaining why the chart below is the key chart for BTC investors heading into Q3. He described it as the Bitcoin Market Map because it clearly shows how Bitcoin’s major support and resistance levels relate to likely investor behavior.

Figure 2: Q3 Bitcoin Market Map.

The latest version shows BTC currently trading in what Philip describes as a strong DCA zone, with price sitting close to the 200 week moving average. Historically, this has been one of Bitcoin’s most important bear market support levels and has often marked an attractive area for long-term accumulation.

Below current price, realized price remains the next major level to watch, currently around $53,200. If BTC were to fall into that region, it would represent an even deeper value opportunity, with the market trading near the average cost basis of all Bitcoin. That raises the question of whether the market will actually offer investors that opportunity.

To the upside, the key level remains the 200 day moving average. A decisive reclaim of that level would likely signal that confidence is returning to the market. However, by that point, much of the deepest long-term value may already have passed, as price would be significantly higher than it is today.

Bitcoin ETF Green Shoots

Bitcoin spot ETFs have been under sustained pressure in recent weeks, with U.S. funds recording eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. That marks the longest negative run since these products launched and highlights how weak institutional demand has become during this stage of the cycle.

However, there was a notable shift on Thursday, with the ETF market posting a $221.7 million net inflow. This was the strongest daily inflow since early May and ended a 10-session outflow streak that had drained more than $2.7 billion from the funds.

Figure 3: Bitcoin ETF daily flows showing the significant inflow on Thursday.

The majority of that inflow came through Fidelity’s FBTC, which attracted roughly $166 million on the day. That made Fidelity the clear driver of the rebound, even as BlackRock’s IBIT continued to see redemptions.

Figure 4: Surge in Fidelity’s FBTC inflows.

The question now is whether this marks the start of a renewed trend, or simply a one-day bounce after weeks of heavy selling. Recent outflows have been significant, and the cumulative flows chart shows the first meaningful decline in aggregate Bitcoin spot ETF demand since launch.

Figure 5: ETF cumulative flows showing the recent decline.

For Bitcoin bulls, this is an important trend to watch in the coming weeks. If ETF inflows return consistently, it could provide fresh support for price. If not, it would suggest institutional demand remains cautious despite the recent bounce.

To get clarity about Bitcoin, access the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform here.

Use this code at checkout to get 30% off: 30BULL

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

TL;DR:

• The previous bear market took approximately 156 days from the initial price capitulation to the final low.

• The current market is only around 10 days from replicating that window.

• The Crosby Ratio has hit one of its lowest readings ever on both the daily and weekly timeframes.

• The daily RSI has set a reading matched only by the 2018 bear market low.

• The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are due to cross imminently.

• The Active Address Sentiment Indicator has crossed back above its lower band, historically a reliable early accumulation signal.

Momentum

The Bitcoin Crosby Ratio dropped to one of its lowest readings ever as Bitcoin moved below $60,000 for the second time. The only comparable instance historically was the exact 2018 bear market low. Critically, this reading is now extreme not just on the daily timeframe but on the weekly as well, and every prior weekly instance has aligned closely with a major cycle bottom.

Figure 1: The Crosby Ratio exhibits a pattern previously seen at major cycle bottoms.

View Live Chart

The RSI tells a similar story. As price returned to the $60,000 area, the daily RSI set one of the lowest readings on record, matched only by the 2018 low.

Figure 2: Weekly RSI shows a bullish divergence against price.

Time

The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are on track to produce a cross in the coming days. Looking at previous instances of this signal, the track record is notable. In 2015, it appeared with Bitcoin around $200, before the eventual run to $20,000. Near the end of the 2018-2019 bear market, it appeared with price below $4,000, ahead of the move to $69,000. In 2022, it didn’t mark the exact low, but it appeared with Bitcoin around $19,000 before the climb to $126,000.

Figure 3: 50WMA and 100WMA crosses have aligned close to the last three cycle lows.

View Live Chart

The crossing of the moving averages points to around July 10th. Along with that, a 156-day fractal from the initial capitulation to the ultimate low in the previous bear market, overlaid onto the current price action, points to around July 12th as a potential low this time around.

Figure 4: The BTC/USD daily chart with a 156-day fractal overlay from the previous cycle.

Network Activity

One telltale sign of a bear market is declining network usage. The Active Address Sentiment Indicator has recently shown renewed positive price momentum that’s actually being supported by increased on-chain utilization, rather than price moving in isolation.

Figure 5: The Active Address Sentiment Indicator has flagged most major price lows.

View Live Chart

Looking at every instance where this indicator has crossed back above its lower deviation band since the previous bear market low, the track record is solid. It’s not flawless, and no indicator is, but on most occasions, it has marked price levels shortly before meaningful moves higher.

To Sum It Up

The weight of evidence here is broad. It’s not one indicator, one timeframe, or one way of measuring. It spans momentum readings on both daily and weekly charts, historical duration fractals, moving average signals, and network utilisation. Even the relative purchasing power charts and the Bitcoin production cost angle we didn’t dig into today are both showing similar tail-end situations for BTC.

Could we see a few more percent of downside? Yes. Will the bottom land in exactly 10 to 14 days? Nobody knows. I’d want to see a convincing reclaim of key resistance points above $70,000 at the very least before thinking the bull market could be back on. But to not even consider scaling in at these levels feels like the riskiest move to make right now.

Watch our most recent YouTube video here: The Bitcoin Bottom Signal Is Less Than 2 Weeks Away

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

• Samson Mow believes Bitcoin bottom is in

• Saylor signals another Bitcoin buy

• Why a sell off in gold and silver may be dragging Bitcoin down

• Law firm press release saying it is investigating potential Strategy securities fraud

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: 14M HELD BY ROOKIES - HERE’S WHAT SMART MONEY DOES

Latest Price Action

We are now deep into a bear market. So let’s take a look at the latest price action and identify the key levels BTC may move to next.

BTC continued to tumble this week, falling around -8% and sliding back below the 200-week moving average.

Figure 1: Bitcoin weekly performance

Live Price

That matters because the 200WMA has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most important long-term support levels, broadly identifying cycle-low regions throughout Bitcoin’s existence.

Figure 2: Bitcoin technical chart

For bullish price action to return, BTC needs to reclaim the 200WMA. If not, the next major downside level is Realized Price, currently around $53,200.

The 200DMA continues to drift lower and now sits at $75,600. Reclaiming that level will be the major confidence boost the market has been missing, but price is still some way from that level.

June is set to close deep in the red, with BTC down around -31% month-to-date, indicating we are now deep into bear market territory.

Figure 3: Monthly Returns Heatmap

Live Chart

Saylor’s Strategy Remains Under Pressure

Another major focus this week has been Michael Saylor’s Strategy.

Saylor posted again over the weekend, which has historically been his signal that another Bitcoin purchase disclosure may follow today. If confirmed, it would mark another week of buying, although the size of recent purchases has slowed sharply.

That is important because Strategy is now operating in a much more difficult environment. The company holds more than 847,000 BTC at an average cost of roughly $75,600, meaning its Bitcoin treasury is now materially underwater with BTC trading near $60,000.

Figure 4: Strategy Real-Time Treasury P&L

Live Chart

At the same time, Strategy’s premium to Bitcoin NAV has compressed heavily. Our data now shows mNAV around 0.73, meaning the market is valuing the company at a meaningful discount to the Bitcoin it holds.

Figure 5: Strategy Premium to Bitcoin NAV

Live Chart

This creates a clear tension. On one hand, Saylor continues to signal accumulation, and Strategy remains one of the most aggressive Bitcoin buyers in the market. On the other hand, a falling mNAV makes the funding model more difficult, especially if equity and preferred shares remain under pressure.

It is worth keeping the broader picture in mind though. Since adopting a Bitcoin standard, MSTR has still massively outperformed BTC and most major public market assets.

Figure 6: MSTR Performance Since Adoption

Live Chart

So while near-term pressure is real, the bigger question is whether Strategy can keep extending its runway without becoming a forced seller. For now, that seems to be the case but the market will be watching closely over the coming weeks.

To get clarity about Bitcoin, access the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform here.

Use this code at checkout to get 30% off: 30BULL

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

If you don’t have time to read the full thing:

• Only 0.32% of all Bitcoin accumulated towards the lows is actually sold around the highs.

• Only 51% of all accumulation ever leads to selling at a higher price.

• Twice as much supply is bought at the top and sold at the bottom as the reverse.

• Genuine smart money accumulation peaks almost exactly at cycle bottoms, the opposite to ‘rookie’ investors.

The Problem With “Long-Term Holder”

The standard definition of a Long-Term Holder is simply someone who has held their Bitcoin for 155 days or more. It says nothing about whether they bought well. Plenty of people who bought the exact top of a cycle and held on through the entire drawdown qualify as long-term holders, not because they’re sophisticated, but because they’re underwater and waiting.

Figure 1: The 155-day definition captures cycle-top buyers holding underwater positions.

View Live Chart

A more meaningful way to separate the experienced from the inexperienced is to look at where people accumulate relative to Bitcoin’s average cost basis. Those consistently buying at or even below the Realized Price, when the average holder is at a loss, are demonstrating something closer to genuine insight. Those buying when valuations spike are typically doing the opposite.

Raw Valuations Mislead

One mistake a lot of people make is fixating on raw valuation levels and deciding, for example, to sell when a metric like the MVRV hits a value of seven. The problem is that these levels mean different things in different cycles. In 2017, the MVRV went from around five or six to ten in under a week. The raw number spiked, but the amount of time Bitcoin actually spent at those elevated levels was tiny.

Figure 2: Using Realized Price MVRV quantiles to identify smart money.

So instead of raw values, the approach here uses quantile bands, looking not at the value itself, but at how many data points across Bitcoin’s history have ever reached that level. The upper band represents readings that less than 5% of all days have ever hit. Even in the recent underwhelming cycle, the moves through $100,000 and then $120,000 registered as overvalued on this basis, precisely because Bitcoin so rarely spends time up there relative to the overall cost-basis.

Where Bitcoin Actually Gets Accumulated

When you split all Bitcoin accumulation into 20 bands, from the cheapest 5% of price action to the most expensive, the results are sobering. The vast majority of Bitcoin is accumulated in the upper regions of all price action. Only 1.6% of all Bitcoin was accumulated in the bottom 5th percentile.

Figure 3: Held Bitcoin supply distributed across 20 acquisition price bands.

Most people, in other words, are buying high. They’re not accumulating at the discounts, but they’re piling in when price is already elevated, and sentiment is strong. Only 18.4% of all BTC is bought in the lowest 25% of price action, while over 28.6% is bought in the top 25%

The Matrix

Mapping where holders buy against where they eventually sell reveals just how rare genuine smart money is. The vast majority of activity is churn, with 93.3% of accumulated Bitcoin bought and then sold within the same valuation band. Of the small amount that does move bands, the average is just two and a half bands.

Figure 4: The cross-band disposal matrix shows where each acquisition band’s supply gets sold.

Of those who bought in the bottom 5% of price action and sold later at a higher valuation band, only 1.2% managed to sell in the top 5% of price action. Meanwhile, twice as much supply is bought at the top and sold at the bottom as the reverse. Overall, only 51% of all accumulation ever led to selling at a higher price, and only 0.32% of all accumulation was in the bottom 25% of price action before distributing in the top 25% of price action!

Following the Veterans

When you isolate genuine smart-money, or ‘veterans’, those who accumulate at the lows and distribute at the highs, from ‘rookies’, a clear pattern emerges: veteran accumulation spikes at cycle bottoms. Rookie accumulation spikes at cycle tops, almost exactly as hype peaks.

Figure 5: Rookie and veteran cohort supply plotted against Bitcoin’s price cycle.

Veteran accumulation has been registering strongly, and on the quantile band measure, Bitcoin is currently sitting in the bottom 25th percentile of price action. This isn’t a precise bottom-picking tool, and we could certainly go lower. But the behaviour of the most experienced cohort, combined with where price sits in its historical distribution, points clearly toward this being an accumulation zone rather than a distribution one, especially when measuring the relative rate of change in accumulation, which is currently accelerating.

Bringing It All Together

The data shows overwhelmingly that most market participants buy high and sell low, that genuine top-and-bottom timing is rare, and that the experienced cohort consistently does the opposite of the crowd. You don’t need to nail the exact bottom; almost nobody ever does. You just need to take the emotion out of it, acknowledge that Bitcoin will do what Bitcoin does, and accumulate when the data says you’re in the lower percentiles rather than the upper ones. Right now, that’s exactly where we are.

And watch our most recent YouTube video here: 14M+ Bitcoin Is Held By Rookies — Here’s What Veterans Do Differently

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

• Franklin Templeton files ETFs that funnel dividends into Bitcoin

• FBI warns of couriers collecting crypto scam payments

• BlackRock launches covered call Bitcoin ETF

• GoMining challenges Square with bitcoin payments system

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: Sentiment collapsed to its lowest level ever

Latest Price Action

It has been another sluggish week for BTC, with price dropping as low as $62,400 before recovering slightly to trade around $64,000. That leaves Bitcoin down -2.5% over the past seven days.

Figure 1: BTC past week price action.

Fear and uncertainty continue to dominate market sentiment, with the Fear & Greed Index currently sitting in Extreme Fear.

Figure 2: Fear & Greed Index showing Extreme Fear.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is now sandwiched between two important levels. The 200 week moving average is currently acting as support, while the 200 day moving average is moving lower quickly and now sits around $76,600.

Figure 3: Key technical levels

Which of these levels breaks first will likely determine Bitcoin’s direction over the coming months. A sustained hold above the 200WMA would suggest buyers are still defending a historically important bear market support zone. However, failure to hold this level would risk another move lower, potentially to the Realized Price level.

To the upside, reclaiming the 200DMA remains the key level needed for confidence to return to the market.

ETF Demand and Strategy Uncertainty

New Bitcoin ETF products continue to come to market, showing that institutional product development around BTC remains strong. There were two big announcements this week.

BlackRock is now expanding its ETFs into Bitcoin income exposure, while Franklin Templeton has filed dividend-to-Bitcoin ETF products that could gradually route traditional equity income into BTC over time.

In bull markets this news would send BTC price upwards. However, the market response to this news has been muted, which is no surprise at this stage in the cycle.

The latest data shows that recent spot Bitcoin ETF demand has weakened meaningfully, with daily flows showing consistent red bars and very limited inflows over recent weeks.

Figure 3: Bitcoin ETF daily flows, showing persistent outflows and limited recent inflows.

The cumulative flows chart also shows that ETF demand has largely stabilized rather than continuing to trend higher in recent months. This is the first time since launch that the ETF bid has stopped acting as a clear source of sustained upside pressure.

Figure 4: Bitcoin ETF cumulative flows, showing the recent flattening in aggregate demand.

A likely reason is that capital and attention have rotated back toward AI stocks in the short term, while Bitcoin has been weighed down by weak sentiment and questions around Strategy. Investors continue to ask whether Saylor’s company could need to sell BTC, or whether it will keep buying through the downturn.

His latest post on X suggests the latter remains more likely in the short term.

Figure 5: Michael Saylor’s latest post

The next question is where that capital comes from. Further MSTR equity issuance would raise dilution concerns, while STRC continuing to trade below its $100 target leaves investors questioning how attractive that funding channel remains.

It’s going to be an interesting second half to the year as the market ultimately works its way through these short term questions.

To get clarity about Bitcoin, access the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform here.

Use this code at checkout to get 30% off: 30BULL

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Let’s cut to the chase:

• The traditional 155-day long-term holder threshold is based on 2020 research and hasn’t kept pace with how Bitcoin holding behaviour has changed since.

• A dynamic boundary that recalibrates daily currently sits at 114 days, 27% lower than the static standard.

• Filtering out UTXOs that aren’t really economic transactions produces a cleaner, more accurate Realized Price.

• Metrics rebuilt on this new boundary have historically marked cycle tops and bottoms with notable precision.

• On these new metrics, Bitcoin is currently sitting in deep value territory.

A Fixed Threshold No Longer Fits

The original logic behind the 155-day mark was sound. It’s the point at which the probability of a holder spending their Bitcoin drops off sharply and then flattens out. Past that point, statistically, people tend to hold. The problem is that Bitcoin’s holder behaviour has shifted dramatically. Fewer people are using it as a peer-to-peer payment system, and far more are holding it indefinitely as a store of value, driven significantly by ETFs and treasury companies.

When the broad behaviour of the network changes this much, a fixed threshold set six years ago starts to potentially misrepresent what’s actually happening on-chain. So rather than a static number, the approach here uses a boundary that recalibrates every single day based on the entire history of Bitcoin transactions. Right now, that dynamic boundary sits at 114 days.

That might sound counterintuitive, a lower threshold for “long-term.” But it makes sense because people are holding as a store of value more than ever, and the point at which spending probability drops off now arrives sooner. You don’t need to hold as long before your likelihood of selling falls away significantly.

A Cleaner Realized Price

The second piece of this is the Realized Price, the average cost basis of all Bitcoin on the network, and arguably the single most important on-chain metric out there. The issue is that “all Bitcoin on the network” includes a lot of things that aren’t really economic transactions.

There’s Bitcoin dust, which would cost more to send than it’s actually worth and is effectively unspendable. There are genuinely unspendable outputs. There are inscriptions, which exploded in volume from 2023 onward and aren’t really value-transfer transactions in any meaningful sense. And there are freshly mined coins, which arrive every ten minutes and aren’t immediately spent, so counting them at issuance and again when they eventually move risks double-counting. Filtering all of that out produces what I’d consider a truer realised price. It sits slightly higher than the standard version, because it stops counting the cost basis of coins that will realistically never move again.

More Actionable Signals

The real test of any new methodology isn’t whether it’s clever, but whether it produces something more useful. So I rebuilt the standard on-chain metrics on this new foundation. The long-term holder SOPR, which measures whether long-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss, becomes considerably sharper when built on the dynamic boundary and viewed through historical quantiles. It has marked Bitcoin’s major cycle tops and bottoms with notable precision. Right now, it’s sitting at a reading comparable to the recent $60,000 low, and some of the lowest levels it has ever recorded.

Applying the same approach to Short-Term Holder MVRV produces a similar improvement. The big upside spikes align with major price rallies, and the deep downside readings align with major turning points.

Where We Are Now

Taking this quantile methodology and applying it to the filtered realized price produces upper and lower bands, a rough gauge of where Bitcoin might be heading based purely on real on-chain fundamental data, with no historical repainting. Viewed on a reactive, variable basis rather than through fixed thresholds, it’s been remarkably actionable.

Wrapping It All Up

Bear markets are for building. Rather than just waiting out the downside, this is exactly the kind of period to do genuinely useful work, and reworking one of the foundational thresholds of on-chain analysis felt like a worthwhile place to start.

This is a first effort, and it’s fully open. Every formula and filter used is published so anyone can replicate it, test it, and improve on it. If the methodology can be made better, that benefits the entire space, and that’s the whole point. The metrics built on this new boundary appear more accurate, more reactive, and more actionable, and right now they’re all pointing to Bitcoin currently being in deep value territory.

And watch our most recent YouTube video here: I Rebuilt Bitcoin’s 155-Day Holder Metric: It’s Now Even More Accurate

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

• DOJ charges two for laundering £389M in bitcoin

• Standard Chartered calls Bitcoin bottom at $59K

• BlackRock files 8-A for yield bearing Bitcoin ETF

• What SpaceX’s IPO means for its Bitcoin reserve

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: MSTR HAS ONLY DONE THIS 4 TIMES EVER

Latest Price Action

In the past few hours, Donald Trump has announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran. While most U.S. equity markets were closed, Bitcoin trades 24/7, meaning it was one of the first major assets to react. Price has already started to move to the upside, jumping sharply in the past couple of hours as markets price in a potential easing of geopolitical risk.

Figure 1: Past 24 hours price action, showing Bitcoin’s sharp upside move following the ceasefire announcement.

Live Chart

That move has pushed Bitcoin’s weekly performance back into positive territory, with BTC now up +3.8% over the past seven days.

Figure 2: Past week price action, showing Bitcoin’s recovery from recent lows.

Live Chart

Despite this bounce, Bitcoin still has work to do to turn June positive.

Figure 3: Monthly returns heatmap.

Live Chart

For the month of June, Bitcoin remains down -12.52% so far. Bulls will be hoping that the 2nd half of 2026 will create more green months showing Bitcoin gains.

Bitcoin Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin has successfully managed to hold the 200 week moving average in the short term. This is one of the most important bear market support levels in Bitcoin’s history. Price has only reached this region during periods of deep market stress, and historically, accumulating around this zone has proven to be a sound long-term strategy as BTC has gone on to trend significantly higher in future months.

Figure 4: Bitcoin key support and resistance levels, showing BTC holding the 200WMA, with Realized Price below and the 200DMA above.

The exact current levels we are watching are:

BTC current price: $65,537

• 200DMA: $77,528

• 200WMA: $62,120

• Realized Price: $53,400

To the downside, the next major support level remains Realized Price, currently around $53,400. This represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin and has historically been associated with periods of deep value.

To the upside, the key level is now the 200 day moving average at $77,528. For confidence to return to the market, Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level after last month’s strong rejection.

Patience is still needed. However, for long-term investors, accumulating in this broad valuation zone has historically been rewarded. The Bitcoin Investor Tool also shows BTC trading below the 2 year moving average (green line), a region that has generated outsized returns in previous cycles.

Figure 5: Bitcoin below the 2 year moving average, highlighting a historically attractive long-term accumulation zone.

Live Chart

BTC is currently well below that 2-year moving average line indicating that Bitcoin price is currently in deep-value territory.

To get clarity about Bitcoin, access the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform here.

Use this code at checkout to get 30% off: 30BULL

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This week at a glance:

• The RSI has only been lower on a handful of occasions since Strategy adopted a Bitcoin standard.

• The Mayer Multiple for MSTR has just reached the lower percentiles.

• The BTC vs MSTR ratio is close to entering a zone that has historically preceded sustained MSTR outperformance.

• At the previous Bitcoin all-time high with a 1x net asset value premium, the fair value of MSTR shares would be over $300.

Discount

Strategy currently holds approximately 845,000 BTC with an Average Cost Basis in the mid-$70,000s. That means, at current Bitcoin prices, they’re sitting at a pretty massive loss on their holdings.

Figure 1: Strategy’s Average BTC Cost Basis and other key metrics.

View Live Charts

This has coincided with the NAV dropping even deeper beneath 1.00x; with MSTR’s market cap currently sitting approximately 18% below the USD value of its Bitcoin holdings. In other words, buying MSTR at current prices is the equivalent of buying $1 of Bitcoin for $0.82.

Support

The 200-week moving average is usually pretty notable support for assets, especially those that typically trend to the upside. Strategy’s share price is currently sitting right on this level, the same level that has previously marked significant accumulation zones.

Figure 2: Strategy’s share price tests the 200-week moving average.

A sustained hold and reclaim of this level, combined with Bitcoin showing any upward momentum, historically sets up the conditions for meaningful MSTR recovery. The level is being tested. Whether it holds will be one of the key signals to watch over the coming weeks.

RSI

Since Strategy adopted a Bitcoin standard, the RSI for MSTR has only been lower on a handful of prior occasions, both during previous Bitcoin bear market cycle lows, when the share price was in the low teens. The current reading isn’t quite at those depths, but it’s approaching them, and the direction of travel is continuing downward.

Figure 3: MSTR’s RSI drops beneath 25. Historically, such levels have preceded price appreciation.

The Mayer Multiple, simply the ratio between MSTR’s closing price and its 200-day moving average, recently registered a reading where 99.2% of all prior data points were higher. That’s a historically extreme level of underperformance relative to its own moving average, and it’s occurred at broadly the same time as the RSI signal. Giving two independent momentum indicators, both flashing readings only seen at the most significant cycle lows in MSTR’s history.

MSTR or BTC?

The ratio between Bitcoin’s price and MSTR’s share price is one of the cleaner ways to gauge whether exposure should be in Bitcoin directly or rotated toward the higher-beta proxy. When the ratio is in the green upper zone, MSTR has historically been positioned to outperform. When it’s in the red lower zone, Bitcoin tends to lead.

Figure 4: The BTCUSD/MSTR ratio is close to the green zone, a level that has previously preceded sustained MSTR outperformance.

The ratio is currently close to entering that green zone again. Previous instances of this were followed by extended periods of significant MSTR outperformance relative to Bitcoin. The ratio is also making lower highs on the long-term trend, indicating the general trajectory is shifting toward MSTR becoming increasingly favorable relative to direct Bitcoin exposure.

Fair Value

At the previous all-time high of around $126,000 and with no additional accumulation priced in, a 1x net asset value premium on MSTR would imply a share price of over $300. That’s roughly a 2.5x from current levels just to reach fair value at Bitcoin’s last peak.

Figure 5: MSTR price targets modeled across varying BTC holdings and NAV premium scenarios.

If MSTR continues accumulating toward the 900,000 BTC range and the NAV premium moves modestly higher toward 1.25x or 1.5x, well below the 3x+ levels seen in the previous cycle, the numbers become pretty enticing! Crucially, the MSTR dilution that drove bitcoin accumulation is increasingly being funded through STRC rather than common share issuance, reducing that particular headwind.

Where Are We?

I’ve been accumulating bitcoin aggressively. I’m now also looking to add more MSTR. The combination of extreme momentum readings, the 200-week moving average support, an implied discount to the underlying Bitcoin holdings, and the BTC vs MSTR ratio close to entering historically favorable territory makes this feel like a no-brainer for a short-term play to increase my own BTC stack.

That said, MSTR is a high-beta Bitcoin play. If Bitcoin continues to struggle, MSTR will struggle more. I’m not treating this as a replacement for Bitcoin exposure, but as an additional asymmetric position at a point where the data suggests the risk-reward is historically favorable.

And watch our most recent YouTube video here: MSTR Has Only Done This 4 Times Ever — I’m Buying $1 For 82 Cents

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

What’s Happening

• Big banks gloves come off in their fight over Crypto Clarity Act

• Saylor signals further Bitcoin buys as Scrutiny over Strategy grows

• JP Morgan says Strategy may need to rebuild dollar reserves

• Bitcoin ATMs: The canary in the coal mine

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: 5TH WORST BITCOIN PRICE ACTION EVER - I’M BUYING AT 99.8% PROBABILITY

Bitcoin Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin has continued to weaken over the past week after it had previously failed to reclaim the 200 day moving average. In recent editions of Weekly Alpha, we have warned that the 200DMA was likely to act as tough resistance and noted that BTC had already struggled to break above it.

That failure has now played out, with price moving lower and testing one of the most important long-term support levels in Bitcoin’s history.

Figure 1: BTC price action against the 200DMA, 200WMA and realized price.

For several months, we have also highlighted the 200 week moving average as a key level to watch in this bear market. This week BTC finally tumbled down to that area, briefly breaking below $60,000 and setting a new low for the current cycle before attempting to recover back above the 200WMA.

Figure 2: Bitcoin 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

This is now the key line in the sand. If BTC can reclaim and hold the 200WMA, it would suggest buyers are beginning to step in at historically important support. If it fails, then the next major level to watch is realized price, currently around $53,600 (see figure 1).

We believe it is worth remembering that historically, Bitcoin has only traded down to the 200WMA during the depths of bear markets. For long-term investors, these periods have often felt uncomfortable in real time, but they have also historically represented rare accumulation opportunities over the long term.

Look at figure 2, how infrequently BTC price has been around the 200WMA throughout its entire history.

Strategy, Saylor and the MSTR Pressure Point

Strategy remains at the center of market attention as investors debate whether Michael Saylor’s company will continue acting as a major source of Bitcoin demand or whether market stress could force a more defensive approach following their recent selling of 32 BTC.

Figure 3: Saylor’s latest post

That message is important because uncertainty around Strategy has become a key part of the current market narrative. MSTR is now trading below its Bitcoin NAV, weakening the accretive logic that powered much of the bull market. When the stock trades at a premium, issuing equity to buy BTC can increase Bitcoin per share. When it trades at a discount, the market becomes far less forgiving.

Figure 4: Strategy premium to Bitcoin NAV, showing the sharp compression from the 2024 highs.

At the same time, BTC has fallen back toward Strategy’s average cost basis, which is why traders are watching closely for any sign that the company’s buying engine is slowing.

Figure 5: Strategy average BTC cost basis, with BTC now approaching a key level for market psychology.

Capital has also rotated aggressively back toward AI stocks. The performance chart shows Nvidia (+1,746%) now far ahead of both MSTR (874%) and BTC (433%) since Strategy first adopted Bitcoin back in 2020.

Figure 6: MSTR performance since Bitcoin adoption compared with BTC, Nvidia and other major assets.

That does not mean the Strategy thesis is broken, but the market now wants proof that Strategy can remain a net buyer over the long term. The market will be watching Saylor’s actions as well as his X posts very closely over the coming weeks.

To get clarity about Bitcoin, access the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform here.

Use this code at checkout to get 30% off: 30BULL

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Let’s cut to the chase:

• The Crosby Ratio Z-score has one of the lowest readings in history.

• The RSI is at a level we’ve only encountered a handful of times in extreme market lows.

• Bitcoin has bounced off the 200-week moving average.

• The SOPR is in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings.

• The Mayer Multiple is also in its bottom fifth percentile.

The Crosby Ratio

The Crosby Ratio Z-score measures Bitcoin’s price momentum and standardizes it for Bitcoin’s evolving volatility. It’s not a fixed threshold as it adjusts as the market matures and volatility compresses, making it applicable across every stage of Bitcoin’s history. The current reading is around -1.7. This means 99.8% of all days in Bitcoin’s history have registered a less extreme reading on this indicator.

Figure 1: The Crosby Ratio Z-Score has just dipped to one of its lowest ever values.

The list of instances where this reading has been as low: the recent drop to $60,000, the first break below $20,000 in 2022, the COVID crash in March 2020, and the 2018 bear market low. That’s it. Four occasions in over a decade of price history. Every single one of them turned out to be a significant accumulation opportunity.

The RSI

The Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used momentum indicators across all markets. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is currently at one of the lowest levels ever. The previous instances of readings this low were the 2015 bear market low, the 2018 bear market low, the COVID crash, and the recent drop to $60,000.

Figure 2: The Relative Strength Index is comparable to historical lows.

Two independent momentum indicators, measured completely differently, but producing the same short list of historical comparisons. That kind of confluence across methodologies isn’t something to dismiss.

The 200-Week Moving Average

The 200-Week Moving Average has served as bear market support throughout Bitcoin’s history. The only meaningful exception was the FTX collapse in late 2022, which caused a brief but sharp undershoot before a rapid recovery. Outside of that event, this level has held as a floor every single cycle.

Figure 3: Bitcoin currently sits just above its 200WMA.

View Live Chart

Bitcoin has just bounced off that level again. Directly beneath current prices sits the recent cycle low, creating the structure for a potential double bottom, one of the more reliable technical formations across any market. The 200-week moving average and the Bitcoin Realized Price converge in approximately the same zone, adding further weight to this level as meaningful structural support.

SOPR & The Mayer Multiple

The Spent Output Profit Ratio is currently in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings. This means the rate of realized losses across the Bitcoin network, the pace at which holders are selling at a loss, is in the deepest 5% of anything we’ve ever recorded. The selling that has driven this move has been predominantly short-term in nature; value days destroyed data confirms that long-term holders have largely not participated in this liquidation. These are short-term traders and leveraged positions being cleared out, and not the conviction holders capitulating.

Figure 4: The Spent Output Profit Ratio illustrates the severity of recent losses.

View Live Chart

The Mayer Multiple, which measures Bitcoin’s price relative to its 200-day moving average, is simultaneously in its own bottom fifth percentile. When these two indicators have historically been in their lower extremes at the same time, the resulting accumulation opportunities have been exceptional. It has happened only a handful of times, and each instance has been followed by significant price appreciation.

Figure 5: The Mayer Multiple has reached levels corresponding to previous bear cycle lows.

To Sum It Up

I’ll be honest, the strength of the decline surprised me. I anticipated a pullback from the $80,000 resistance zone, but the move through $70,000 was sharper than expected. What hasn’t surprised me is the data that’s emerged as a result, because this kind of confluence across technical, on-chain, and momentum indicators has appeared before, and the market has consistently rewarded accumulation at these readings.

Could we go lower? Yes. The realized price sits not far beneath current levels and represents the next meaningful support zone if the low is revisited. I’m prepared for that scenario. But removing all emotion and looking purely at what the data is saying, five independent signals simultaneously in generational territory, this is not the moment to wait on the sidelines for a marginally better price.

And watch our most recent YouTube video here: 5th Worst Bitcoin Price Action Ever — I’m Buying At 99.8% Probability

Matt Crosby (@MattCrosbyPro)

Director of Research & Analytics

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

What’s Happening

• Coinbase becomes first US exchange to offer crypto perps

• Kraken launches Bitcoin Vault with 2.5% reward

• Trace Mayer says Bitcoin’s wild days are over

• ECB’s Schnabel claims digital euro is key to counter stablecoin risks

• YOUTUBE ANALYSIS: BTC is only 0.27% of Global Capital - I know that changes before 2030

Bitcoin Key Levels to Watch

With May now closed, we can review BTC’s performance across the monthly returns heatmap. In the context of the current bear market, a negative month is not especially surprising, but May’s decline was relatively contained, with BTC down 3.5%.

Figure 1: Monthly Returns Heatmap

Year to date, Bitcoin is now down 15.9%. That has been difficult price action for bulls, but our view at Bitcoin Magazine Pro remains unchanged: we believe Bitcoin is entering the final stages of the bear market. There may still be more challenging price action in the near term, but we expect BTC to end the year significantly higher than current levels.

For more detail, you can read our members-only reports by signing up here.

Where next?

In recent newsletters, we highlighted the risk of BTC failing to break above the 200DMA. After that rejection, we warned that price was likely to retrace back toward the previous range. BTC is now back at the top of that range, and at risk of falling back into it.

Figure 2: BTC Back at the Range

This current price action does not yet look strong. Without a decisive reaction from these levels, BTC risks moving back into the range, which would likely frustrate many market participants.

This is often the stage of the cycle where weaker hands capitulate and lose interest. For long-term mindset investors, however, these areas can provide excellent risk/reward.

Key levels to watch

The 200 Week Moving Average continues to climb and is now at $61,531. That is within the range highlighted in the previous chart

Figure 3: 200WMA Heatmap

Realized Price, the average cost-basis of all bitcoin in circulation, is currently $54,018. A move down to that level would require BTC to lose the current range, so it remains an important deeper support level to monitor.

Figure 4: Realized Price

However, long-term investors should also note that price remains below the 2 Year Moving Average, currently at $87,495. The Bitcoin Investor Tool uses this moving average to identify periods where Bitcoin is severely undervalued. Historically, investing during these green-zone periods has provided outsized returns.

So while many participants are focusing on the near-term and panicking, by zooming out we see that BTC is currently at very attractive levels.

Figure 5: Bitcoin Investor Tool, BTC in the green zone.

The near-term setup remains fragile, but the bigger picture is becoming more interesting. For patient investors, this is exactly the kind of environment where long-term opportunity emerges.

To get clarity about Bitcoin, access the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform here.

Use this code at checkout to get 30% off: 30BULL

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Team.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Make Smarter Decisions About Bitcoin. Join millions of investors who get clarity about Bitcoin using data analytics you can’t get anywhere else.

GO TO FREE CHARTS

SIGN UP NOW

We don’t just provide data for data’s sake, we provide the metrics and tools that really matter. So you get to supercharge your insights, not your workload.

Subscribe now

Take the next step in your Bitcoin investing journey:

• Follow us on X for the latest chart updates and analysis.

• Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular video updates and expert insights.

• Follow our LinkedIn page for comprehensive Bitcoin data, analysis, and insights.

• Explore Bitcoin Magazine Pro to access powerful tools and analytics that can help you stay ahead of the curve.

Invest wisely, stay informed, and let data drive your decisions. Thank you for reading, and here’s to your future success in the Bitcoin market!

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.